Improving volume expectations are colliding with soaring costs, limited spare capacity and uncertainty over how quickly electrification and shifting trade routes will reshape Europe’s vehicle logistics network.
European finished vehicle logistics providers are showing a fresh dose of confidence after a bruising 2025, but the improvement is exposing a familiar structural problem: the sector is being asked to commit capital in an environment that looks increasingly unstable and difficult to forecast. ECG, the trade body for the industry, said its latest Confidence & Cost Trends Survey points to a modest recovery in sentiment, with 39 per cent of respondents expecting volumes to increase over the next six months and only 17 per cent forecasting a decline.
That improvement, however, comes with few signs of breathing space. According to ECG, about one in three providers has no spare capacity, while 33 per cent are not currently planning to invest. The association’s president, Mark Hindley, said the industry needs earlier access to information, more visibility over demand and a willingness to adopt supporting technologies, as the market becomes less predictable even as long-term investment remains unavoidable. In comments linked to ECG’s Copenhagen conference on 15 and 16 October 2026, he argued that logistics fundamentals have not changed, but the wider context in which decisions are made has become far more complex.
The pressure on margins is compounded by rising costs. A separate ECG and PwC study published this year found that the European finished vehicle logistics cost index reached 152.8 in the second quarter of 2025, meaning costs were 52.8 per cent higher than in January 2019. The same analysis showed that three out of four segments rose in the first half of 2025 compared with the end of 2024, with sea logistics up 108.8 per cent over the period and road transport up 28.8 per cent. ECG has also said that cost concerns have overtaken capacity as the sector’s main challenge, as transport rates, fuel movements, tolls and labour costs continue to squeeze operators.
The broader backdrop is a sector in transition. ECG says electrification, new manufacturing hubs, changing trade routes and rising Chinese exports are reshaping how vehicles move across Europe and beyond. Interest in electric trucks is growing, but conventional vehicles still dominate the fleet. That leaves operators trying to judge how quickly ports, routes and infrastructure can be adapted if these shifts prove structural rather than temporary. ECG is pressing for longer-term capacity commitments, greater transparency and a fairer sharing of risk, arguing that such measures would give providers more confidence to invest and help carmakers build more resilient logistics networks.
Source Reference Map
Inspired by headline at: [1]
Sources by paragraph:
– Paragraph 1: [2], [6]
– Paragraph 2: [2]
– Paragraph 3: [3], [4], [5]
– Paragraph 4: [2], [5], [7]
Source: Noah Wire Services
Verification / Sources
- https://fleet.ie/ecg-vehicle-logistics-stabilises-but-securing-future-capacity-demands-visibility/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.ecgassociation.eu/article/?id=1424fac7-5cfd-44be-a351-5c1c8e930dfe – The European Finished Vehicle Logistics (FVL) sector is witnessing renewed optimism following a challenging 2025, as reported by the ECG’s latest Confidence & Cost Trends Survey. However, this recovery highlights the industry’s core dilemma: the necessity for long-term investments in a market that is increasingly short-term and unpredictable. Mark Hindley, President of ECG, emphasises the need for greater visibility, earlier access to information, and openness to adopting new supporting technologies. The survey indicates that 39% of respondents expect volumes to rise in the next six months, while only 17% anticipate a decline. Despite the recovery, one-third of providers report no spare capacity, and 33% are not planning to invest. Additionally, empty running has doubled, rising from 20% to 40%, and while interest in electric trucks is increasing, conventional vehicles continue to dominate. The logistics sector is undergoing significant transformations due to industry evolution, technological advancements, new trade corridors, and stricter sustainability requirements. The shift towards electrification, emergence of new manufacturing centres, and a surge in Chinese exports are reshaping logistics. Manufacturers’ rapidly developing strategies underscore the speed of these changes. The pressing question for logistics is how quickly capacity, routes, and infrastructure can be adjusted, especially if such disruptions prove to be structural rather than temporary. To bridge the gap between short-term market pressures and long-term investment, ECG advocates for enhanced transparency, longer-term capacity commitments, and a fairer sharing of risk, providing logistics providers with more confidence to invest and helping customers maintain more resilient vehicle logistics networks. These topics were central at ECG’s Copenhagen conference on 15–16 October 2026, which examined how port capacity and infrastructure need to evolve in response to car manufacturers’ restructuring and the measures necessary to ensure the continued movement of vehicles during this period of upheaval. The conference brought together FVL service providers, car makers, logistics specialists, and policymakers influencing these key decisions.
- https://www.eurotransport.de/logistik/spedition-und-logistik/studie-von-pwc-und-ecg-preise-in-der-fertig-fahrzeug-logistik-sind-seit-2019-explodiert/ – A study by PwC and ECG reveals that prices in the finished vehicle logistics sector have surged by over 50% since 2019. The analysis indicates that from January 2019 to June 2025, costs in this area increased by 52.8%. The study highlights that three out of four segments in Finished Vehicle Logistics (FVL) experienced cost increases in the first and second quarters of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The logistics segment by sea saw a cost increase of 108.8% between January 2019 and June 2025, while the road segment experienced a 28.8% increase. The study attributes these cost escalations to factors such as rising labour costs, toll increases, and fluctuations in fuel prices. The findings underscore the pressing need for the FVL sector to adapt to these rising costs and seek innovative solutions to maintain efficiency and competitiveness.
- https://www.ecgassociation.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/25.10-FVL-Cost-Index_EN.pdf – The European Finished Vehicle Logistics (FVL) Cost Index for the second quarter of 2025 stands at 152.8, indicating an overall cost increase of 52.8% from January 2019 to June 2025. Compared to the values for the fourth quarter of 2024, three out of four segments showed an increase in the first and second quarters of 2025. The logistics segment by sea experienced a cost increase of 108.8%, while the road segment saw a 28.8% increase. The study attributes these cost escalations to factors such as rising labour costs, toll increases, and fluctuations in fuel prices. The findings underscore the pressing need for the FVL sector to adapt to these rising costs and seek innovative solutions to maintain efficiency and competitiveness.
- https://www.ecgassociation.eu/article/?id=35305de6-f971-4294-8beb-08635c8322e4 – A survey by the ECG Tech Board reveals that cost concerns have overtaken capacity as the primary challenge in logistics. The 2026 survey indicates that unpredictable markets, fluctuating transport rates, and volume volatility are driving this shift. The survey highlights that while Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) face strong pressure on transport rates, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are experiencing increasing pressure on transport budgets. The findings underscore the need for improved predictability, forecasting, and planning efficiency amid rising costs. The survey also points to the challenges posed by extended lead times, delays at unloading points, and the handling of vehicles of varying weights and sizes, all contributing to potential disruptions in the logistics sector.
- https://www.ecgassociation.eu/article/?id=88e54e79-3442-4794-8d0a-4f7663672d33 – According to the latest results of the cost and confidence trends survey from ECG, the number of companies experiencing a decrease in volume soared to 51% in the first quarter of 2025, up from an all-time low of 5% in the second quarter of 2023 during the most challenging time of the capacity crisis. Companies do not expect any significant changes in the next six months for their business. The current trade conflicts, potential rise in inflation, and the growing unpredictability of political developments increase the uncertainty in the market. The findings highlight the pressing need for the FVL sector to adapt to these challenges and seek innovative solutions to maintain efficiency and competitiveness.
- https://www.explortal-logistics.net/news/pressemitteilung-press-release-update-of-the-european-fvl-cost-index-for-q3-and-q4-2025-is-now-released-33835 – The European Finished Vehicle Logistics (FVL) Cost Index for the fourth quarter of 2025 stands at 151.1, indicating an overall cost increase of 51.1% from January 2019 to December 2025. Compared to the latest reported values for the second quarter of 2025, three out of four segments showed an increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The logistics segment by sea experienced a cost increase of 99.9%, while the road segment saw a 29.4% increase. The study attributes these cost escalations to factors such as rising labour costs, toll increases, and fluctuations in fuel prices. The findings underscore the pressing need for the FVL sector to adapt to these rising costs and seek innovative solutions to maintain efficiency and competitiveness.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score: 10
Notes: The article is dated 19 October 2026, reporting on events from 15–16 October 2026, indicating high freshness. The content appears original, with no evidence of recycling from other sources. The narrative is based on a press release from ECG, which typically warrants a high freshness score.
Quotes check
Score: 8
Notes: The direct quotes from Mark Hindley, President of ECG, are consistent with those found in the ECG press release dated 16 October 2026. No discrepancies or variations in wording were found, suggesting the quotes are accurately reported. However, the reliance on a single source for these quotes slightly reduces the verification score.
Source reliability
Score: 9
Notes: The primary source is the ECG press release, a reputable organisation within the vehicle logistics sector. The article also references Fleet Transport, a publication known for covering logistics and transport news. While Fleet Transport is a niche publication, it is considered reliable within its field. The article does not appear to be summarising or aggregating content from other sources, indicating independent reporting.
Plausibility check
Score: 9
Notes: The claims regarding the stabilisation of vehicle logistics and the need for greater visibility and investment align with industry trends and the context of the ECG Conference 2026 held in Copenhagen on 15–16 October 2026. The article provides specific data points, such as the 39% of respondents expecting volume increases and the 33% not planning to invest, which are consistent with the ECG press release. The language and tone are appropriate for the industry and region, with no inconsistencies noted.