The FIDI Global Alliance Business Cycle Barometer has helped track a tough two years for the moving industry, but as FIDI’s Customer Relations Manager Lydia Cope reports, latest data shows confidence returning and cautious optimism for 2026
The FIDI Global Business Cycle Barometer (FGBCB) has been running on a quarterly basis since Q4/2019. We could never have imagined when we created and launched the first Barometer that we were on the verge of a global pandemic, but the way it tracked recovery post-pandemic demonstrates why this measurement tool is so important to FIDI in its ongoing evaluation of how the industry is performing.
The Barometer measures business sentiment, based on how the current quarter went, against the same quarter the previous year, as well as measuring expectations for the immediate next quarter, compared with the same quarter last year.
Since 2019, we have seen peaks and troughs as the industry has battled through the pandemic, geopolitical and shipping crises. Despite 2024 and 2025 having been tough for the industry as a whole, there are grounds for cautious optimism, with some members reporting very successful business results. Indeed, our Barometer results reflect this, with a mixed basket of results.
Overwhelmingly though, in 2025, members reported a downturn in revenue, profit and staff numbers, with a continued rise in prices and operational costs detailed worldwide. Overall business confidence was above zero throughout 2025, with a peak of 16 reported in Q2/2025. In the quarters that followed, confidence dipped to just 1, showing a decline in how industry leaders perceived the industry to be performing during the traditional summer peak season.
On a positive note, at the time of writing this article in late January, I had just closed our latest Business Cycle Barometer, and I was pleased to see that the overall business confidence had grown to a positive 6. This means there is slight optimism among members that better times may be ahead.
The encouraging score is overwhelmingly down to respondents reporting positive expectations for the upcoming quarter, rather than the results for Q4/2025. These responses allow us to hope that 2026 could turn out to be a better year for the industry.
The 2025 report is now available to download from FIDI’s publications page on fidi.org.