Global air cargo rates remain stubbornly high as capacity returns to Gulf routes following Iran-US ceasefire, amid persistent demand and logistical constraints that sustain elevated prices in 2024.
Global air cargo rates remained stubbornly high in the week to 21 June, even as some freight capacity began returning to Gulf routes after the latest ceasefire between Iran and the United States. WorldACD Market Data said the average worldwide rate across spot and contract business rose 1 per cent in week 25 to US$3.24 per kilogram, suggesting the market has not yet felt much relief from the gradual restoration of services.
The resilience of pricing reflects a market in which demand is still running ahead of supply on a number of long-haul trade lanes. WorldACD said average rates across the main origin regions were broadly unchanged from the previous week, even as airlines started restoring flights after the ceasefire and peace memorandum took effect on 17 June. That steadiness indicates the return of aircraft to the region has, so far, done little to unwind the tightness that has supported rates.
The latest figures also sit within a longer period of strength in air cargo. The International Air Transport Association said global air cargo demand hit a record in 2024, rising 11.3 per cent year on year, while capacity increased 7.4 per cent and yields averaged 39 per cent above 2019 levels. Middle Eastern carriers also posted 13 per cent growth in cargo demand last year, underscoring the region’s importance to global freight flows.
Recent conflict-related disruption has made that tightness worse. Aviation Pros reported that airspace closures and operational upheaval around the Gulf grounded aircraft and helped drive a 22 per cent fall in global air cargo capacity between late February and early March 2026, with the Asia-Middle East-Europe corridor hit especially hard. Even after the ceasefire, CLECAT said rates on key trade lanes remained elevated, with capacity constraints and rerouting continuing to support prices.
Year on year, the market remains markedly more expensive. WorldACD said global rates were 35 per cent higher than in the same week a year earlier, with the sharpest rise coming from the Middle East and South Asia, where average prices were up 50 per cent. Asia-Pacific origin cargo also showed a 37 per cent annual increase, a sign that strong export demand and limited available lift are still keeping pressure on shippers despite the return of some Gulf capacity.
Source Reference Map
Inspired by headline at: [1]
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Verification / Sources
- https://caasint.com/global-air-cargo-rates-remain-elevated-despite-capacity-returning-to-gulf-markets/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-01-29-02/ – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a record 11.3% increase in global air cargo demand in 2024, surpassing 2021’s volumes. Capacity rose by 7.4%, and yields averaged 39% higher than in 2019. December 2024 saw demand 6.1% above December 2023 levels, with yields 53.4% higher than in December 2019.
- https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/middle-eastern-carriers-saw-13-growth-air-cargo-2024 – Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 13% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in 2024, with capacity increasing by 5.5%. December 2024 saw a 3.3% increase in demand and a 0.2% increase in capacity compared to December 2023.
- https://www.aviationpros.com/ground-support-worldwide/news/55362659/middle-east-conflict-disrupts-global-air-cargo-networks-as-capacity-drops-and-rates-rise – The Middle East conflict led to airspace closures and operational disruptions, grounding aircraft at Gulf hubs like Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. This resulted in a 22% decline in global air cargo capacity between February 28 and early March 2026, with the Asia-Middle East-Europe corridor capacity dropping by 39%. Freight rates increased due to capacity constraints.
- https://www.clecat.org/en/news/newsletters/middle-east-ceasefire-offers-limited-relief-for-ai – Following the US-Iran ceasefire, air cargo rates on key trade lanes remained elevated, with year-on-year increases of 105% on routes from South Asia to Europe and 87% from Europe to the Middle East. Capacity constraints due to rerouting and reduced operations continued to exert upward pressure on prices.
- https://asianaviation.com/posts/worldacd-cargo-rate-rise-slows-as-me-capacity-rebuilds – WorldACD data indicated that the steep rise in global air cargo rates since the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran began is slowing. In week 16 (13–19 April 2026), average worldwide spot rates rose by just 1% week-on-week to US$3.73 per kilogram, with rates 46% higher than the previous year and over 40% up since the conflict’s start.
- https://www.foodbusinessmea.com/air-cargo-rates-to-ease-after-us-iran-ceasefire-but-recovery-will-take-months/ – The US-Iran ceasefire has eased air cargo rates, but capacity recovery across Middle East routes is expected to take one to two months. Xeneta data for the week ending 5 April 2026 shows air cargo spot rates surged 105% on the South Asia to Europe corridor, with other key lanes also experiencing significant rate increases.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score: 8
Notes: The article was published on 29 June 2026, referencing data up to 21 June 2026. Similar information has been reported in recent weeks, with the latest data from WorldACD Market Data indicating that average global air cargo rates increased by 1% during week 25 (15–21 June), reaching US$3.24 per kilogram. (worldacd.com) The narrative appears to be current and not recycled from older sources.
Quotes check
Score: 9
Notes: The article does not contain direct quotes. The information is presented as data and analysis from WorldACD Market Data and other sources. The absence of direct quotes reduces the risk of reused or unverifiable content.
Source reliability
Score: 7
Notes: The primary source, WorldACD Market Data, is a reputable provider of air cargo market intelligence. However, the article is published on CAAS International, which is a niche publication. While it is a specialist source, its reach and audience are limited compared to major news organisations. This may affect the perceived reliability of the information.
Plausibility check
Score: 8
Notes: The claims about elevated air cargo rates and capacity issues align with recent industry reports. For instance, Metro Global reported on 24 June 2026 that air freight markets are showing signs of greater stability, but rates remain significantly higher than a year ago due to constrained capacity. (metro.global) The information is plausible and consistent with other reports.