The Dutch transport and logistics sector faces significant changes in 2026 as new kilometre-based charges, rising costs, and evolving trade dynamics reshape operations and investment strategies, with a focus on decarbonisation and market divergence.
The Dutch transport and logistics sector faces a year of contrasts in 2026 as policy shifts and changing trade patterns reshape costs and cargo flows, according to a report by ING Research. While rising consumer deliveries and e-commerce demand offer growth pockets, the introduction of a kilometre-based truck charge and higher labour costs are set to drive a marked increase in road-haulage expenses and squeeze already thin margins.
ING Research expects the combination of an emissions- and distance-based levy with pay-as-you-go charging to push road transport expenses up by more than 10 per cent, with wage growth of over 4 per cent compounding the pressure. The levy’s structure , charging trucks by weight and CO₂-emission class , will mean operators face varying rates depending on vehicle specifications. According to the Dutch government plan, the Heavy Goods Vehicle Charge will take effect on 1 July 2026 and apply to vehicles over 3,500 kg on motorways and many other major roads.
Industry groups are bracing for difficult cost conversations with shippers. An inventory by a Dutch trade and logistics knowledge hub showed nearly half of clients intend to seek renegotiation of prices in response to the kilometre charge, suggesting direct pass-through of the new costs will be far from straightforward and could add financial strain where margins are slim.
Policymakers have framed the levy as a lever to accelerate decarbonisation. Revenue from the charge will be recycled into the sector to support the purchase of zero-emission trucks and to build charging and hydrogen infrastructure, with government documents indicating substantial funding earmarked for subsidies and green technologies between 2026 and 2030. The state will also abolish the existing Eurovignette and lower motor vehicle tax for many trucks as part of the package.
Those reinvestments could shift fleet decisions over time. ‘The kilometre charge will make it much more interesting for road transporters to consider using electric trucks. But at the same time, it will require careful financial management to avoid losing out with already low margins,’ said Rico Luman, sector economist for Transport and Mobility at ING, reflecting industry hopes that the charge will spur uptake of cleaner vehicles while acknowledging the immediate commercial strain.
Market demand is diverging. Parcel carriers and consumer-facing logistics firms are benefitting from continued e-commerce growth, much of it linked to overseas webshops, notably from China, which has driven additional air-freight volumes. At the same time, transport of bulk raw materials and other industrial cargoes remains subdued, leaving inland shipping and rail freight under pressure as coal and other commodity flows decline.
Taken together, ING projects modest overall volume growth of around 1 per cent for the sector in 2026, with pockets of stronger activity tied to consumer logistics and potential upside from a recovering German economy. Yet the mix of protectionist trade shifts, new EU measures, and the financial implications of the truck levy mean the sector will need careful cash management and strategic investment to navigate the year ahead.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Verification / Sources
- https://www.supplychainmovement.com/truck-charge-causes-sharp-rise-in-road-transport-costs/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://business.gov.nl/amendments/extra-heavy-vehicle-tax-lorries-over-3500kg/ – The Dutch government plans to introduce a Heavy Goods Vehicle Charge (HGVC) on 1 July 2026. This toll will apply to trucks over 3,500 kg, covering most motorways and certain provincial and municipal roads. The charge aims to promote sustainable transport by encouraging the use of cleaner vehicles. Revenue from the HGVC will be reinvested into the sector, funding subsidies for zero-emission trucks and the development of charging infrastructure. The Eurovignette will be abolished, and motor vehicle tax for trucks up to 12,000 kg will be reduced to the minimum level.
- https://www.collicare.com/cn-en/about-collicare/news/truck-toll-in-the-netherlands-starting-july-1-2026 – Starting 1 July 2026, the Netherlands will implement a truck toll for vehicles weighing 3.5 tonnes or more. This toll will be calculated based on the truck’s weight and CO₂ emissions, with rates averaging around €0.186 per kilometre. The introduction of the toll aims to promote sustainable freight transport and reduce CO₂ emissions. The Eurovignette will be discontinued, and motor vehicle tax for trucks will be reduced. The revenue from the toll will be reinvested into the transport sector, including subsidies for zero-emission trucks and charging stations.
- https://nltimes.nl/2024/10/05/large-part-truck-levy-goes-subsidy-zero-emission-vehicles – The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management announced that a significant portion of the proceeds from the truck levy will fund subsidies for purchasing zero-emission trucks. The levy is expected to generate €1.6 billion from 2026 to 2030, with €980 million allocated for zero-emission vehicle subsidies. The truck levy, effective from 1 July 2026, will charge trucks per kilometre driven, with rates depending on vehicle emissions and weight. The revenue will also support the development of charging infrastructure and hydrogen technologies.
- https://trans.info/netherlands-eurovignette-445738 – From 1 July 2026, the Netherlands will replace the Eurovignette system with a kilometre-based truck toll. This toll will apply to all vehicles over 3.5 tonnes on motorways, select N-roads, and certain municipal roads near major cities. The toll rates will be based on the vehicle’s weight and CO₂ emission class, aiming to modernise toll collection and support the decarbonisation of heavy road transport. Revenue from the toll will be reinvested in the sector, including in electric trucks, hydrogen technologies, and the expansion of charging infrastructure.
- https://ritra.nl/en/forecasts-for-road-transport-in-2026/ – The introduction of the truck levy in the Netherlands, effective from 1 July 2026, is expected to increase road transport costs. The levy will apply to trucks over 3,500 kg on almost all motorways and certain N roads. Zero-emission vehicles up to 4,250 kg are exempt from charges. The rate is determined by the vehicle’s CO₂ emission class, weight, and kilometrage. The government aims to make road freight transport more sustainable and efficient through this measure.
- https://www.vrachtwagenheffingsbeleid.nl/binaries/vrachtwagenheffingsbeleid/documenten/publicaties/2023/10/11/draft-multi-year-programme-terugsluis-tm-2030—version-ic-july-2023/Draft%2BMulti-Year%2BProgramme%2BTerugsluis%2B%28tm%2B2030%29%2B-%2Bversion%2BIC%2BJuly%2B2023.pdf – The Dutch government plans to introduce a Heavy Goods Vehicle Charge (HGVC) in 2026. The net proceeds from the HGVC will be reinvested into the transport sector to make it more sustainable and innovative. This includes subsidies for zero-emission trucks, the construction of charging infrastructure, and the development of hydrogen technologies. The revenue will also support the transition to electric road systems and the optimisation of the logistics chain to reduce transport kilometres.
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The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score: 6
Notes: The article discusses the introduction of a kilometre-based truck charge in the Netherlands, effective from 1 July 2026. (business.gov.nl) Similar information has been reported by other sources, such as ColliCare Logistics, which published an article on 31 October 2025. (collicare.nl) The earliest known publication date of substantially similar content is 31 October 2025. The narrative appears to be based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. However, the presence of similar content across multiple sources raises concerns about originality. (collicare.nl)
Quotes check
Score: 5
Notes: The article includes a quote from Rico Luman, sector economist for Transport and Mobility at ING. However, this quote cannot be independently verified through online searches. (collicare.nl) The lack of verifiable quotes raises concerns about the authenticity of the information presented.
Source reliability
Score: 7
Notes: The article originates from Supply Chain Movement, a niche publication focusing on supply chain and logistics news. While it is reputable within its niche, its reach and influence are limited compared to major news organisations. The reliance on a press release as the primary source and the lack of independent verification of quotes further diminish the overall reliability of the source.
Plausibility check
Score: 6
Notes: The claims about the introduction of a kilometre-based truck charge in the Netherlands, effective from 1 July 2026, are plausible and align with information from other sources. (business.gov.nl) However, the lack of independent verification of key details, such as the exact toll rates and the specifics of the revenue recycling plan, raises questions about the completeness and accuracy of the information presented.