Global air cargo volumes showed surprising resilience in January 2026, but industry analysts warn of deepening structural challenges driven by declining e-commerce exports, policy volatility, and capacity constraints that could disrupt recovery throughout the year.
2026 began on a surprisingly firm note, but industry analysts warn that the apparent strength in January conceals growing structural strains tied to weakening e‑commerce flows and short‑term policy volatility. According to Xeneta, chargeable weight climbed 7 per cent year on year in January, the strongest monthly rise since January 2025, while capacity expanded by about 5 per cent and the global dynamic load factor rose to roughly 57 per cent.
Closer inspection suggests much of the upside was calendar‑driven rather than a clear rebound in demand. Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, cautioned: “Asia is such a big exporter of airfreight, it is difficult to draw any conclusions on what the market was signalling in January because of the lunar new year [holiday] and the fluctuations it causes.” He pointed out that the 2026 Lunar New Year fell in mid‑February rather than late January, shifting a volume pulse into the opening month.
Pricing trends reinforce the cautious view. Global spot rates ended January at about USD2.56 per kg, down only 1 per cent year on year after steeper declines earlier, but analysts note local‑currency quoting and recent currency moves can obscure true demand signals when converted to dollars. Van de Wouw warned: “Air freight rates are typically quoted in local currencies, so a weaker dollar can make a world average – converted back into dollars – look firmer than it truly is.”
Beneath the surface, the sector faces a more unsettling trend: a marked slowdown in cross‑border e‑commerce exports from China. China Customs figures showed low‑value and e‑commerce exports fell about 9 per cent year on year in December, the first sustained drop since early 2022, and China‑to‑US e‑commerce flows have slumped sharply following the US de minimis restrictions. Industry data indicate China‑to‑US e‑commerce exports were down more than 50 per cent for a third month in December and fell about 28 per cent for full‑year 2025.
Attempts by Chinese platforms to reroute parcels towards Europe have weakened, too. Growth from China to Europe slowed to roughly 8 per cent in December after very strong gains earlier in 2025, and excluding Russia some European markets saw year‑on‑year declines. Xeneta estimates that e‑commerce now accounts for around 20–25 per cent of annual global air cargo volumes, meaning a sustained downturn in online export shipments could have wide implications for freighter demand and conversion plans.
Policy moves and tariff headlines are already adding volatility to trade flows and pricing. January’s short‑lived surge in Europe‑US rates, amid fears of an additional 10 per cent tariff on imports from several European countries, underlined how quickly shippers will front‑load or reroute freight to protect margins; Xeneta and Baltic Air Freight Index analysis documented rapid week‑on‑week volume spikes ahead of the threatened measures and sharp single‑week rate jumps on key European gateways. Once the tariff threat was reversed, much of that pressure evaporated, exposing how policy rather than underlying consumption can drive abrupt price swings.
Capacity remains a complicating factor. Freighter availability is constrained by delivery backlogs, ageing aircraft, and rising fuel and maintenance costs, so the market still looks structurally tight in places even if e‑commerce demand eases. Ocean shipping developments are another key wildcard: although some carriers are gradually returning to Suez transits, long transit times and port congestion mean a rapid modal shift back to ocean looks unlikely in the near term, which may limit immediate downward pressure on air volumes. Xeneta now projects more modest volume growth for 2026 than the bounce seen at the end of 2025.
For airlines, forwarders and shippers the picture is mixed: January’s numbers provide short‑term relief from falling rates, but the combination of fading e‑commerce growth, regulatory headwinds and tariff‑driven spikes suggests 2026 will be a year of greater structural adjustment and episodic volatility rather than steady recovery. How firms with large exposure to converted freighter capacity respond to an e‑commerce slowdown will be pivotal for market balance through the rest of the year.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Verification / Sources
- https://theloadstar.com/strong-january-masks-air-cargo-weakness-and-volatility/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/global-air-cargo-volumes-rise-in-january-despite-china-e-commerce-drop-1358094 – In January 2026, global air cargo volumes increased by 7% year-on-year, marking the strongest growth since January 2025. This rise was influenced by an earlier Lunar New Year, which brought forward shipping activities. However, the market faced challenges due to a 9% year-on-year decline in China’s low-value and e-commerce exports, the first such drop since early 2022. Analysts from Xeneta cautioned that the January performance might be more calendar-related than indicative of underlying demand strength. Additionally, the U.S. de minimis ban contributed to a significant decline in China-to-U.S. e-commerce exports, down over 50% for three consecutive months in December. Efforts to redirect volumes to Europe also showed signs of slowing, with growth in China-to-Europe e-commerce dropping to about 8% in December, compared to 54% in the first 11 months of 2025. Excluding Russia, e-commerce sales from China to the rest of Europe declined by 23% year-on-year. These trends suggest potential structural shifts in the air cargo market as the e-commerce boom begins to fade.
- https://transportjournal.com/2026/02/11/air-freight-volume-increases-by-7/ – Global air freight volumes saw a 7% increase in January 2026 compared to the previous year, attributed to an earlier start of the Lunar New Year. This development led to a temporary boost in demand, while freight rates experienced a slight decline of 1% to $2.56 per kg. However, the first declines in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022 dampen initial market optimism, as analysts from Xeneta report. The positive development in the air freight market should be viewed with caution, considering the impact of the Lunar New Year on exports from Asia.
- https://www.indexbox.io/blog/lunar-new-year-timing-drives-january-air-cargo-volume-up-7-rates-decline/ – According to a Xeneta report dated February 6, global air cargo demand rose 7% year-over-year in January, marking the strongest volume increase since January 2025. An executive at the firm noted that because Asia exports such a large portion of air freight, the earlier timing of the Lunar New Year holiday in 2026 causes significant fluctuation, making January’s volume strength more a calendar effect than a clear indicator of improving underlying demand. Generally, air cargo spot rates experienced year-over-year declines. The global average rate fell 1% to $2.56 per kilogram in January. Rates from Northeast Asia to the U.S. dipped 3% year-over-year to $4.28 per kilogram, while rates from Southeast Asia to North America saw a larger 12% annual decline to $4.88 per kilogram. The firm reported that low-value and e-commerce exports from China to the U.S. continue to fall as a U.S. de minimis ban remains in full effect, with e-commerce typically driving 20% to 25% of total annual global air cargo volumes.
- https://www.xeneta.com/news/air-cargo-ends-a-tumultuous-2025-with-6-volume-growth-in-december-but-less-buoyant-e-commerce-signals-cloud-the-horizon – Global air cargo demand finished a tumultuous 2025 on a high with volumes up 6% year-on-year in December, but flatlining e-commerce shipments ex-China will create concern for airlines and forwarders reliant on consumers’ online buying sprees, say industry analysts Xeneta. Better-than-expected volumes over the last quarter of the year helped air cargo demand record 4% growth in chargeable weight year-on-year for 2025, reflecting many shippers’ willingness to shift away from other modes to the speed and reliability of air cargo during times of disruption and economic uncertainty. 2025 had “something for everyone,” said Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, with service providers benefitting from higher volumes than expected earlier in the year, and shippers gaining from lower rates in the second half of the year. Having predicted up to 4% market demand growth for 2025, Xeneta sees a more cautious outlook for 2026, forecasting a slightly more modest 2-3% rise in volumes this year.
- https://caasint.com/global-air-cargo-volumes-rise-in-january-but-china-e-commerce-exports-fall/ – Global air cargo demand rose by 7% in January compared with a year earlier, helped by the timing of the Lunar New Year, according to industry analysts Xeneta. The increase marked the strongest year-on-year growth since January 2025 and came as capacity grew more slowly, up 5%. As a result, aircraft were slightly fuller, with Xeneta’s global dynamic load factor rising by one percentage point to 57%. Air cargo spot rates also stabilised, falling by just 1% year on year to an average of $2.56 per kilogram, easing a period of steeper declines. Despite the upbeat start to the year, Xeneta warned against reading too much into January’s figures. Niall van de Wouw, the company’s chief airfreight officer, said demand in Asia is heavily influenced by the Lunar New Year, which shifts each year. In 2026, the holiday falls in mid-February rather than late January, meaning more shipping activity was pulled into January.
- https://airfreight.news/articles/full/early-lunar-new-year-flatters-to-deceive-as-global-air-cargo-volumes-rise-7-in-january-but-chinas-e-commerce-exports-down-first-time-since-2022 – An earlier Lunar New Year flattered global air cargo demand in January as the year commenced with unexpected vigour with a 7% year-on-year boost in demand and an easing of recent freight rate declines, but any early market optimism for 2026 was dampened by the first year-on-year fall in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022, according to industry analysts Xeneta. The growth in global chargeable weight in the opening month of 2026 was the strongest increase since January 2025, and ahead of the 5% year-on-year growth in capacity supply. With volumes rising faster than capacity, the global dynamic load factor edged up one percentage point to 57%. Recent pricing declines also recovered with global air cargo spot rates down just 1% year-on-year to USD 2.56 per kg in January.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score: 8
Notes: The article was published on 6 February 2026, which is within the past 7 days, indicating high freshness. However, the content references data up to January 2026, which may not fully capture the most recent developments in the air cargo industry.
Quotes check
Score: 7
Notes: The article includes direct quotes from Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer. While these quotes are attributed and relevant, they cannot be independently verified through the provided sources, raising concerns about their authenticity.
Source reliability
Score: 6
Notes: The Loadstar is a niche publication focusing on logistics and supply chain news. While it is reputable within its niche, it may not have the same level of scrutiny as major news organisations, which could affect the reliability of the information presented.
Plausibility check
Score: 7
Notes: The article presents plausible claims about the air cargo market, such as the impact of the Lunar New Year on volume fluctuations and the decline in China-to-US e-commerce exports. However, without independent verification, these claims cannot be fully substantiated.