The International Air Transport Association (IATA) says it expects world air passenger numbers to grow by an average of 3.9 per cent a year until 2034.
The organisation made the prediction in its 20-Year Passenger Forecast, designed to help stakeholders anticipate future travel demand between nearly 4,000 country pairs (departure and arrival destination nations). Developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, the report uses macroeconomic data and aviation-specific trends, to give projections and alternative scenarios to help a range of businesses prepare for forthcoming changes.
The report also shows shifting patterns, predicting that Indonesia will have joined the US and Canada as a top three market by 2034, France falling nine places to rank 20th largest market worldwide, and Australia moving up four places to 19th.
‘In a world shaped by shifting geopolitics, technological advances, and environmental challenges, understanding potential impacts on travel demand is crucial,’ IATA said in a release. ‘This forecast helps organisations stay ahead of market shifts and seize emerging opportunities.’
The report also details alternative possible scenarios – including annual growth of 5.6 per cent if trade becomes more liberal, or just 1.4 per cent if protectionism and trade barriers increase.